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our_estimates_are_terrible [2020/06/10 12:52] – ↷ Page moved from blog:our_estimates_are_terrible to our_estimates_are_terrible hansour_estimates_are_terrible [2020/06/10 12:55] (current) – ↷ Links adapted because of a move operation hans
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 One team were concerned enough that they wanted to have a discussion on their estimates and the problems they perceived in their process. In preparation, the Scrum Master prepared a data-set of estimates and resultant actual data so we could base the conversation on data. The data collected included a story-by-story view of the original point estimate provided by the team and the subsequent actual story points recorded by the team on completion of the work. As a result we were able to create the following chart: One team were concerned enough that they wanted to have a discussion on their estimates and the problems they perceived in their process. In preparation, the Scrum Master prepared a data-set of estimates and resultant actual data so we could base the conversation on data. The data collected included a story-by-story view of the original point estimate provided by the team and the subsequent actual story points recorded by the team on completion of the work. As a result we were able to create the following chart:
  
-{{ :blog:estimates-vs-actual.jpg?600 |}}+{{ estimates-vs-actual.jpg?600 |}}
  
 This is a frequency chart, a useful starting point for this kind of analysis. It shows for each of estimates the team made (bottom set of numbers – 0.5, 1, 2, etc) the number of times the actual result was a particular estimate. So for estimate of “3” there was 24 times that the actual was also 3 (tallest spike on chart), 15 times it was a 2 (to the left of the tallest spike), 11 times it was an 8 (to the right of the tallest spike) and so on. This is a frequency chart, a useful starting point for this kind of analysis. It shows for each of estimates the team made (bottom set of numbers – 0.5, 1, 2, etc) the number of times the actual result was a particular estimate. So for estimate of “3” there was 24 times that the actual was also 3 (tallest spike on chart), 15 times it was a 2 (to the left of the tallest spike), 11 times it was an 8 (to the right of the tallest spike) and so on.
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 Note: This blog post was turned into a paper and presentation and presented at the Agile 2014 Conference: Note: This blog post was turned into a paper and presentation and presented at the Agile 2014 Conference:
  
-  * {{:blog:our-estimates-are-terrible.pdf|Presentation - Our Estimates Are Terrible}} +  * {{our-estimates-are-terrible.pdf|Presentation - Our Estimates Are Terrible}} 
-  * {{:blog:our_estimates_our_terrible_paper_.pdf|Paper - Our Estimates Are Terrible}} +  * {{our_estimates_our_terrible_paper_.pdf|Paper - Our Estimates Are Terrible}} 
-  * {{:blog:pointingestimate_analysis.xlsx|Cleaned up spreadsheet }}+  * {{pointingestimate_analysis.xlsx|Cleaned up spreadsheet }}
  
 Note: this posting was originally published [[http://www.hanssamios.com/wordpress/2013/08/27/our-estimates-are-terrible/|in August 2013 on a Wordpress Blog]] Note: this posting was originally published [[http://www.hanssamios.com/wordpress/2013/08/27/our-estimates-are-terrible/|in August 2013 on a Wordpress Blog]]
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