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simulating_agile_execution_with_the_ball_point_game

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simulating_agile_execution_with_the_ball_point_game [2017/04/06 15:03] – created hpsamiossimulating_agile_execution_with_the_ball_point_game [2020/06/04 12:01] (current) – Removed LINKBACK hans
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 "You will be given: "You will be given:
  
-  * 2 mins intially to put together your plan+  * 2 mins initially to put together your plan
   * At the end of the planning period you need to provide me with an estimate of the number of 'ball points' you think you'll get done in a 60 sec period   * At the end of the planning period you need to provide me with an estimate of the number of 'ball points' you think you'll get done in a 60 sec period
   * We will then run an iteration of 60 secs where you'll do the work   * We will then run an iteration of 60 secs where you'll do the work
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   * We have "quality control" - if you drop a ball that ball has to go back to the beginning if you want to have that ball count   * We have "quality control" - if you drop a ball that ball has to go back to the beginning if you want to have that ball count
  
-Does everyone understand. OK go - 2 minutes until you have to provide me with your first estimate."+Does everyone understand. OK go - 2 minutes until you have to provide me with your first estimate. 
 + 
 +Oh, and by the way, 'no tools' is another rule. You cannot just put all the balls in a bag and pass the balls around that way."
  
 ====== What You'll Need ====== ====== What You'll Need ======
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 A flip chart / whiteboard as follows: A flip chart / whiteboard as follows:
  
-Sprint | Estimate | Actual | +^ Sprint ^ Estimate ^ Actual ^ 
-------: | -------- | ------ | +|  1|          | | 
-1      |          |  +|  2|          | | 
-2      |          |  +|  3|          | | 
-  3      |          |  +|  4|          | | 
-4      |          |  +|  5|          | |
-  5    |          | +
  
 ====== Facilitation ====== ====== Facilitation ======
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 ====== Debrief ====== ====== Debrief ======
  
-One of the interesting things about this simulation is that there is a lot can be shown and talked about as a result. This is what makes a great exercise, but it also means that you should be selective about what is highlighted, partially lead by what the group raises up but also, as a coach / trainer, you might have a couple of ideas in mind.+One of the interesting things about this simulation is that there is a lot can be shown and talked about as a result. This is what makes a great exercise, but it also means that you should be selective about what is highlighted, partially lead by what the group raises up but also, as a coach / trainer, you might have a couple of ideas in mind. In particular, do not try to do all these messages, just focus on 2 or 3 key ideas.
  
 To start the conversation you might want to start with something open ended: To start the conversation you might want to start with something open ended:
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 Let's look at a typical set of results that you will get out of this game and look at things we might see. Let's look at a typical set of results that you will get out of this game and look at things we might see.
  
-Sprint | Estimate | Actual | +^ Sprint ^ Estimate ^ Actual ^ 
-------: | --------: | ------: | +|  1|  5|   1| 
-1      |    5    |  1 +|  2|  7|  10| 
-2      |      7    |  10 +|  3|  15|  13| 
-  3      |    15    |  13 +|  4|  26|  9| 
-4      |    26    |  9 +|  5|  26|  23|
-  5    |    26    |  23+
  
 What do we see? What do we see?
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   - How did the improvement come about? It came about because we stopped and talked about our "work" and figured out a better plan.   - How did the improvement come about? It came about because we stopped and talked about our "work" and figured out a better plan.
   - Where did all the good ideas come from? What you will find is that a number of people will contribute ideas. This leads to a discussion about the wisdom of the crowds and why top down planning is wasteful as it doesn't fully leverage the brains of all the people on the team.   - Where did all the good ideas come from? What you will find is that a number of people will contribute ideas. This leads to a discussion about the wisdom of the crowds and why top down planning is wasteful as it doesn't fully leverage the brains of all the people on the team.
-  - The previous point also leads to a conversation about leadership. Who was the boss? In most cases there was no boss. People became leaders as their ideas were implemented. This is part of the dynamic of a true team and one of the reason they accelerate. +  - The previous point also leads to a conversation about leadership. Who was the boss? In most cases there was no boss. People became leaders as their ideas were implemented. This is part of the dynamic of a true team and one of the reason they accelerate. We say that leadership “emerges” and, it should noted, the role of leader might flip from person to person depending on context.
   - What was the effect of quality control (dropping the ball)? Not only was it descriptive in a general sense ("oh someone dropped the ball") but it also took time to recover as people got back into a work rhythm. Think of defects in a similar light? Even if we don't care about the customer and their reaction to a defect, we need to stop producing defects (technical debt reduction, invest in automation) so we can focus on providing value.   - What was the effect of quality control (dropping the ball)? Not only was it descriptive in a general sense ("oh someone dropped the ball") but it also took time to recover as people got back into a work rhythm. Think of defects in a similar light? Even if we don't care about the customer and their reaction to a defect, we need to stop producing defects (technical debt reduction, invest in automation) so we can focus on providing value.
   - Most teams start by throwing balls around, whether or not the person on the receiving end is ready. Most teams evolve to have a rule to "wait until you have eye contact with person catching the ball before you throw". This is an example of a pull system. This allows you to talk about the improvement in productivity as a result of the smoother flow you see as a result of pull systems.   - Most teams start by throwing balls around, whether or not the person on the receiving end is ready. Most teams evolve to have a rule to "wait until you have eye contact with person catching the ball before you throw". This is an example of a pull system. This allows you to talk about the improvement in productivity as a result of the smoother flow you see as a result of pull systems.
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 If you look at the chart of results from the expectation of a manger watching the team what we see sprint by sprint is If you look at the chart of results from the expectation of a manger watching the team what we see sprint by sprint is
  
-Sprint | Estimate | Actual | Met Commitments +^ Sprint ^ Estimate ^ Actual ^ Met Commitments ^ 
-------: | --------: | ------: | ----------- |  +|  1|  5|   1|  No   | 
-1      |    5    |  1 | No +|  2|  7|  10|  Yes ✅  | 
-2      |      7    |  10 | Yes ✅  +|  3|  15|  13|  No   | 
-  3      |    15    |  13 | No  +|  4|  26|   9|  No   | 
-4      |    26    |  9 | No  +|  5|  26|  23|  No   |
-  5    |    26    |  23 | No+
  
 In other words, in 5 sprints, we only made and met commitments once. How is a manager to view this. What is really sad is that we had a 23X improvement in productivity, but from a planning perspective we have set bad expectations.  In other words, in 5 sprints, we only made and met commitments once. How is a manager to view this. What is really sad is that we had a 23X improvement in productivity, but from a planning perspective we have set bad expectations. 
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 Where did these expectations come from? The team. Disregarding the first estimate at the moment, look at the behavior for the remaining estimates. After the first sprint we know we can produce 1 ball point. But what did we tell management (me) we could do? 7! After 10, we said 15. Why wouldn't we just say the estimate is "whatever we produced last time"? If we do this and we get a better than expected result, this is usually seen as great news. This type of estimating is called "yesterday's weather" - in the absence of any other facts, best guess for today's whether is whatever it was yesterday: Where did these expectations come from? The team. Disregarding the first estimate at the moment, look at the behavior for the remaining estimates. After the first sprint we know we can produce 1 ball point. But what did we tell management (me) we could do? 7! After 10, we said 15. Why wouldn't we just say the estimate is "whatever we produced last time"? If we do this and we get a better than expected result, this is usually seen as great news. This type of estimating is called "yesterday's weather" - in the absence of any other facts, best guess for today's whether is whatever it was yesterday:
  
-Sprint | Estimate | Actual | Met Commitments +^ Sprint ^ Estimate ^ Actual ^ Met Commitments ^ 
-------: | --------: | ------: | ----------- |  +|  1|   5|   1|  No  | 
-1      |    5    |  1 | No +|  2|   1|  10|  Yes ✅  | 
-2      |      1    |  10 | Yes ✅  +|  3|  10|  13|  Yes ✅  | 
-  3      |    10    |  13 | Yes ✅  +|  4|  13|   9|  No  | 
-4      |    13    |  9 | No  +|  5|  13|  23|  Yes ✅  |
-  5    |    13    |  23 | Yes ✅ +
  
 This helps set expectations based on reality, not fantasy.  This helps set expectations based on reality, not fantasy. 
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 ===== T-Shaped People ===== ===== T-Shaped People =====
  
-This is the opposite of the theory of constraints. Ask "what if we did have a professional basketball player on this team, someone who is way better than anyone else. Would it have helped us improve productivity." Since the whole system determines the result, the answer is "no" unless we had the team learn from the expert and thereby improve the capability of the whole team+This is the opposite of the theory of constraints. Ask "what if we did have a professional basketball player on this team, someone who is way better than anyone else. Would it have helped us improve productivity." Since the whole system determines the result, the answer is "no" unless we had the team learn from the expert and thereby improve the capability of the whole team. 
 + 
 + 
 +===== Improvement Requires Risk ===== 
 + 
 +Most teams settle down on a process and eventually that process does not improve as rapidly as it once did. In other words, for this way of working, there is going to be a basic ability to "produce" a kind of "natural velocity" for the process as it stands. Often you will find teams will decided to do something very different in order to improve (sometimes as a result of hearing that some other team is "better"). Most of the time the experiment does not work as well as anticipating resulting in the same or less ball points than they had before, but most teams decide they want to continue with their new approach.  
 + 
 +The lessons here are: 
 + 
 +  * To improve dramatically you will probably need to take a big risk where you might not get a short term result. 
 +  * The reason that people will continue working their new approach rather than reverting back to the old is that they see significant improvement is possible and with their recent experience (learning) they know they can make the new approach better than the old.
  
 ====== Finish ====== ====== Finish ======
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 And then I usually finish the discussion with a "Do you know what you have done? You have just done agile - all the rest is details:-)" And then I usually finish the discussion with a "Do you know what you have done? You have just done agile - all the rest is details:-)"
  
-# Want to Know More+====== Complexity ====== 
 + 
 +A slightly meta point, but may be interesting for some, this is a good example of emergent behavior as a result of complex systems. You will find that, if you run this a number of times, that there won’t be the same soliton coming out for any group although there will be a lot of similar patterns. The emergent behavior is a result of constraints, boundaries, and focusing.  
 + 
 +====== Want To Know More? ======
  
   * http://dpwhelan.com/blog/uncategorized/learning-scrum-through-the-ball-point-game/ has a number of variations as well as more discussion about how to run the game and the things you can debrief.   * http://dpwhelan.com/blog/uncategorized/learning-scrum-through-the-ball-point-game/ has a number of variations as well as more discussion about how to run the game and the things you can debrief.
 +
 +{{tag>games simulations learning agile estimation}}
 +
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