Differences

This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.

--- troy_magennis_-_risk_the_final_enterprise_frontier [2015/08/17 08:47] – created hpsamios
+++ troy_magennis_-_risk_the_final_enterprise_frontier [2020/06/02 14:22] (current) – external edit 127.0.0.1
@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-Title: TroyMagennis-RiskTheFinalEnterpriseFrontier Timestamp: 2015-08-06 18:00:18 +0000 Created: 2015-08-06 10:58:54 +0000 Last Accessed: 2015-08-06 10:58:54 +0000 Times Accessed: 0 Tags: Metadata: gpslongitude=-77.017155,gpslatitude=38.781715 # Premise
+====== Troy Magennis - Risk The Final Enterprise Frontier ======
+====== Premise ======
 When exploring new ideas we often encounter new risks. This session looks at how Agile risk management needs to be lightweight, but responsive to known risks as well as previously unknown sources of risk. Building new things means encountering new things that go wrong. This session gives techniques that help identify risks early through faciltated estimation, survey crowdsourcing and historical data analysis. We then discuss how to prioritize risks based on a system impact approach and probabilistic simulation.
@@ Line 13: / Line 16: @@
 ====== Summary ======
-  * Content rating (0-no new ideas, 5 - a new ideas/approach, 9-new ideas):
+  * Content rating (0-no new ideas, 5 - a new ideas/approach, 9-new ideas): 9
-  * Style rating (0-average presentstion, 5 - my level, 9-I learned something about presenting):
+  * Style rating (0-average presentstion, 5 - my level, 9-I learned something about presenting): 5
+See learning - this was excellent. Style was pretty good given nature of the subject.
 ====== Action / Learning ======
-  * See chart for risk management
+Excellent presentation.
-  * Get chart to Andrew
+It basically showed why, for development projects, the "impact X probability"-type analysis is not really useful (issue is that if the event occurs, there is an impact on date, and we should be modeling risk associated with the release date / scope as, and if there are 2 or 3 events that come in there is a nonlinear impact on the release date), that how big something is in terms of work has limited effect of modeling risk as issues such as dependency of work and over utilization of people have far higher impact on the plan, and showed an approach to model risk more accurately using, you guessed it, Monte Carlo simulation. I've attached the presentation but, trust me, the pictures don't really help with the understanding of the main message unless you have background. Happy to talk to you about this if you want to.
 ====== Presentation ======
-Risk_-//The_Final_Agile_Enterprise_Frontier//(Troy_Magennis).pdf
+From [[http://Bit.ly/SimResources|Sim Resources]]
+{{:risk_-_the_final_agile_enterprise_frontier_troy_magennis_.pdf|}}
 ====== Notes ======
@@ Line 111: / Line 117: @@
 Splitting Mistake in forecasting Original backlog versus change
+{{tag>Risk Forecast Conference Planning}}