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--- troy_magennis_-_risk_the_final_enterprise_frontier [2015/08/17 09:12] – [Presentation] hpsamios
+++ troy_magennis_-_risk_the_final_enterprise_frontier [2020/06/02 14:22] (current) – external edit 127.0.0.1
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+====== Troy Magennis - Risk The Final Enterprise Frontier ======
 ====== Premise ======
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 ====== Summary ======
-  * Content rating (0-no new ideas, 5 - a new ideas/approach, 9-new ideas):
+  * Content rating (0-no new ideas, 5 - a new ideas/approach, 9-new ideas): 9
-  * Style rating (0-average presentstion, 5 - my level, 9-I learned something about presenting):
+  * Style rating (0-average presentstion, 5 - my level, 9-I learned something about presenting): 5
+See learning - this was excellent. Style was pretty good given nature of the subject.
 ====== Action / Learning ======
-  * See chart for risk management
+Excellent presentation.
-  * Get chart to Andrew
+It basically showed why, for development projects, the "impact X probability"-type analysis is not really useful (issue is that if the event occurs, there is an impact on date, and we should be modeling risk associated with the release date / scope as, and if there are 2 or 3 events that come in there is a nonlinear impact on the release date), that how big something is in terms of work has limited effect of modeling risk as issues such as dependency of work and over utilization of people have far higher impact on the plan, and showed an approach to model risk more accurately using, you guessed it, Monte Carlo simulation. I've attached the presentation but, trust me, the pictures don't really help with the understanding of the main message unless you have background. Happy to talk to you about this if you want to.
 ====== Presentation ======
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 Splitting Mistake in forecasting Original backlog versus change
+{{tag>Risk Forecast Conference Planning}}