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why_a_plan_based_on_average_velocity_will_fail [2020/06/10 12:53] – ↷ Page moved from blog:why_a_plan_based_on_average_velocity_will_fail to why_a_plan_based_on_average_velocity_will_fail hanswhy_a_plan_based_on_average_velocity_will_fail [2020/06/10 12:55] (current) – ↷ Links adapted because of a move operation hans
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 We've all seen the behavior. We learned that we should provide "ranges" of velocities when trying to forecast what is happening in the next Release. For a while we start out with good intentions. We use an average, and we use a "recent" minimum and maximum to frame what might happen in the future. We've all seen the behavior. We learned that we should provide "ranges" of velocities when trying to forecast what is happening in the next Release. For a while we start out with good intentions. We use an average, and we use a "recent" minimum and maximum to frame what might happen in the future.
  
-{{ :blog:screen-shot-2015-08-17-at-2.33.41-pm.png?nolink&600 |}}+{{ screen-shot-2015-08-17-at-2.33.41-pm.png?nolink&600 |}}
  
 Then things change. We look at the "minimum" number and say to ourselves "well that number really doesn't make sense because no one is expecting the team(s) to operate so poorly again." The same is true for the maximum number - no one believes it. We then decide that perhaps the average is the best indicator of what is going on. Then things change. We look at the "minimum" number and say to ourselves "well that number really doesn't make sense because no one is expecting the team(s) to operate so poorly again." The same is true for the maximum number - no one believes it. We then decide that perhaps the average is the best indicator of what is going on.
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 When I enter the original sequence data into the spreadsheet, I get the following information: When I enter the original sequence data into the spreadsheet, I get the following information:
  
-{{ :blog:screen-shot-2015-08-17-at-3.24.49-pm.png?nolink&300 |}}+{{ screen-shot-2015-08-17-at-3.24.49-pm.png?nolink&300 |}}
  
 You can see that the forecast says that we get 93 points if we are interested in a 50% chance of meeting our forecast plan (just like we said the average represented above). If you want an 85% chance of having a forecast plan come in, then you should use 83 as the number of points you expect to get in the next 4 sprints (weeks equated to sprints in this case). You can see that the forecast says that we get 93 points if we are interested in a 50% chance of meeting our forecast plan (just like we said the average represented above). If you want an 85% chance of having a forecast plan come in, then you should use 83 as the number of points you expect to get in the next 4 sprints (weeks equated to sprints in this case).
/home/hpsamios/hanssamios.com/dokuwiki/data/attic/why_a_plan_based_on_average_velocity_will_fail.1591818826.txt.gz · Last modified: 2020/06/10 12:53 by hans